Talarico and Paxton are in a close Texas Senate race, and Democrats are pressing in state House seats. Here’s the polling, the redistricting fight, and the policy debates.
Source note: Reflects reporting through late September 2026. Poll results change, so verify current polling before publication.
Key Takeaways
- Democrat James Talarico won his party’s Senate primary in early March 2026. Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee after the May 26 runoff against Senator John Cornyn.
- Polls show a close general election. A Texas Southern University poll in September put Talarico one point ahead of Paxton among likely voters, within the margin of error.
- Earlier polls showed Talarico ahead of both Republicans, but by margins that varied with the opponent and the pollster.
- Republicans hold a 26-seat majority in the Texas House, and Democrats are targeting a handful of seats rather than the majority itself.
- Texas redrew its congressional map in 2025, and the change is expected to net Republicans three to five House seats, depending on the analysis.
Search Intent Summary
Readers searching this topic want to know who the Senate candidates are, how competitive the race is, what the state House looks like, and what policy issues are driving the contests. This article covers each, with sources and margins attached.
The Senate Race
Talarico, a state representative from Austin, won the Democratic nomination in a competitive primary on March 3, 2026. His fundraising has drawn national attention. Reporting cited a $27 million raise in the first quarter of 2026, compared with $9 million for Cornyn and $2.2 million for Paxton. Those figures came from a conservative outlet and should be checked against FEC filings before publication.
The Republican side was more divided. Cornyn and Paxton faced a runoff on May 26, 2026, which became one of the most expensive Senate primaries in the state’s history, with most of the spending supporting Cornyn. Paxton is now the Republican nominee, and Cornyn has said he will support the party’s nominee. Both Trump and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick called for party unity behind the eventual winner.
The Cook Political Report had rated the seat “Likely Republican” in the spring, but the race has tightened since then.
Polling: Close, and Shifting
The polls below are the most-cited public surveys. Margins of error vary, and not all pollsters are equally rated, so readers should look at the methods as well as the numbers.
| Poll | Dates | Matchup | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Public Opinion Research | April 17 to 20, 2026 (1,865 likely voters, ±2.5 points) | Talarico vs. Paxton | Talarico 46%, Paxton 41% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | Same | Talarico vs. Cornyn | Talarico ahead by about 3 points |
| University of Texas poll | Late April 2026 | Talarico vs. both Republicans | Talarico led both; the poll cited voter concern over cost of living |
| Texas Southern University | September 2026 (1,800 likely voters) | Talarico vs. Paxton | Talarico ahead by 1 point, within the margin of error |
The trend is worth noting. Talarico led in the spring polls by a larger margin, and the September survey shows a near tie. Polling in this race shows a close contest, and neither party can claim a clear advantage based on these results.
Polls also show weaknesses on each side. The April poll found more voters viewed Talarico favorably than unfavorably, while Paxton and Cornyn both had lower net favorability than a generic Republican, Governor Abbott, or Trump.
The Governor’s Race and Other Statewide Contests
Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, has led in polling against Democrat Gina Hinojosa. The April TPOR poll showed Abbott at 48% and Hinojosa at 43%, within the margin of error. Republicans also led in the attorney general contest in several September polls, while the Texas Southern survey showed the Republican comptroller and land commissioner candidates ahead by 6 to 8 points.
Those statewide numbers matter for the Senate race because turnout patterns in the governor’s race often shape the top of the ticket.
The Texas House: A Republican Majority, With Targets
The Texas House has 150 members. Republicans hold roughly 88 seats and Democrats about 62, a 26-seat majority that is unlikely to flip in one election. Democrats are not aiming for the majority this cycle. Instead, they are targeting five Republican-held seats, including two in the San Antonio area.
One of those targets is House District 118, which covers San Antonio’s South Side. It falls entirely within the new 35th Congressional District, a majority-Hispanic district that Republicans drew as a pickup opportunity but which Democrats believe they can win. Democratic groups see the seat as a major battleground because of its role in statewide politics.
The Redistricting Fight
The biggest structural change in Texas politics in 2025 was mid-decade redistricting. In July 2025, President Trump urged Texas legislators to redraw the state’s congressional map to help Republicans keep their House majority. Texas Democrats broke quorum and left the state to block a vote. Governor Abbott ordered the Department of Public Safety to locate and arrest the absent legislators, and those legislators later returned. The House and Senate then approved a new map along party lines, and Abbott signed it on August 29, 2025.
The map could net Republicans three to five additional US House seats, depending on the analysis. Texas holds 38 congressional seats, and Republicans currently hold 25. Democrats have argued that the map was drawn to dilute Latino voting strength, while Republicans have said it reflects population and partisan considerations. Courts have been asked to rule on challenges, and readers should check the current status of any litigation.
Redistricting has also reshaped the national House picture. Analysts at VoteHub found that the new Texas lines moved several seats toward Republicans, but that Democrats remain favored to win a majority overall in a midterm environment that has been difficult for the president’s party.
Policy Debates Shaping the Race
Several issues recur across Texas campaigns.
Cost of living. The UT poll found voters’ concerns about cost of living rising, and both parties are competing for credibility on affordability. Talarico has emphasized economic concerns, while Republicans have pointed to tax policy and their “working families” tax messaging.
Energy and the economy. Gasoline prices and the energy effects of the Iran conflict have affected all statewide races, given Texas’s role in oil production.
Redistricting and voting rights. The 2025 map is central to Democratic arguments about representation, particularly for Latino voters. Republicans have defended the map as a lawful exercise of legislative power.
Trust in leadership. Polling shows voters have mixed views of both Paxton and Cornyn, and the Republican primary’s bitterness has been a theme in Democratic messaging.
Practical Takeaways
For voters and readers, the most useful steps are to check the polls’ methodology and sample size, compare multiple surveys rather than relying on any single one, and watch the governor’s race and early voting data as indicators of turnout.
For campaigns and analysts, the race will depend on turnout among Latino voters, suburban independents, and the Republican base, which has shown divisions since the primary.
This article describes the race and its context. It does not forecast the outcome.
Future Outlook
Texas has been a Republican state for decades, and no Democrat has won statewide since 1994. This cycle’s close polling, the most expensive Senate primary on record, and the redistricting fight make it a test of whether the state’s competitiveness is changing. The result will depend on turnout, on the economy, and on whether Republican voters unite behind their nominee.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is running for Senate in Texas in 2026?
James Talarico is the Democratic nominee. Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee after defeating Senator John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff.
Is the Texas Senate race close?
Polls show it close. A September Texas Southern University poll found Talarico one point ahead of Paxton among likely voters, within the margin of error. Earlier polls showed Talarico ahead by varying margins.
Which party controls the Texas House?
Republicans hold a large majority, roughly 88 of 150 seats. Democrats are targeting a few Republican-held seats rather than the majority.
Did Texas redraw its congressional map?
Yes. Texas enacted a new congressional map in August 2025, which could net Republicans three to five US House seats depending on the analysis. Check the current status of any court challenges before relying on the map’s final form.
